Today’s Market News – Friendly Farmer Edition
🇮🇱 Israel-Iran Tensions & Oil Impact
After a week of high drama in the Middle East, oil prices are calming down a bit. Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, but thankfully avoided hitting any major oil facilities. Even so, markets are still nervous. Iran pumps out over 3 million barrels of oil per day, and any disruption there could send fuel prices climbing. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have enough spare capacity to make up the difference if supply is cut.
So far, no oil exports have been interrupted—but just the threat of conflict in such an important region is enough to keep prices volatile.
🇺🇸 May 2025 U.S. Job Report
The U.S. job market is holding steady. Unemployment stayed at 4.2% in May, and the economy added 139,000 new jobs—just a bit better than expected. While this is good news, some job gains from earlier months were revised down. Economists say this data isn’t enough to push the Federal Reserve to change interest rates just yet.
⛽ Diesel in the Spotlight
Diesel fuel could be the next big story. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised fears of supply issues—especially for the type of oil best used to make diesel and jet fuel. A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway where a big chunk of the world’s oil passes through daily. If that route is threatened or blocked, we could see price spikes.
U.S. diesel inventories are already 15% lower than the 5-year average. So, if there’s any hiccup in supply, farmers and truckers could feel it at the pump. President Trump has said he’s hopeful for peace talks, but for now, uncertainty remains.
📊 Market Overview
Markets are mixed this morning. World leaders at the G7 meeting in Canada are watching closely, but the Israel-Iran conflict continues into its fourth day. Traders are especially concerned about any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—where about 1 in every 5 barrels of global oil travels.
If oil flow through the Strait slows or stops, we could see a big jump in prices. For now, everyone’s watching and waiting.
🔥 Heating Oil Trends
Heating oil prices had a huge jump on Friday, the biggest since 2022, but are easing off a bit today. Technical indicators show the market may have been overbought—meaning prices might pull back a little. But with global tensions still high, analysts say there’s plenty of risk that prices could swing in either direction depending on the news.
Key price levels to watch:
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Resistance (potential ceiling): $2.50 and $2.66
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Support (potential floor): $2.30 and $2.21
