Today’s Market News – Fuel & Trade Update for Midwest Farmers
🚢 U.S. and China Add New Port Fees
Tensions between the U.S. and China have ticked up again — this time at sea. Both countries are now charging extra port fees on each other’s ships. The U.S. started this move to cut into China’s stronghold in global shipping, and China quickly responded with its own fees, targeting U.S.-linked ships while protecting its own.
This back-and-forth could disrupt global shipping lanes, which includes oil tankers and container ships. The two nations say they’re open to talks, but both are also warning they’re ready to push back hard if needed. China has also launched an investigation into how U.S. trade actions are affecting its shipping industry and even sanctioned five U.S.-linked companies connected to South Korea.
Why it matters to you: Changes in shipping costs and delays can ripple into fuel prices and the availability of imported goods — all of which impact farming operations and input costs.
📉 IEA Predicts Oil Oversupply by 2026
This surplus is expected because of rising oil output from countries like the U.S. and OPEC+, along with slower demand due to economic concerns and more electric vehicles on the road. The IEA expects oil demand to grow, but more slowly than usual — only around 700,000 barrels per day per year.However, OPEC disagrees and thinks demand will keep pace with supply. Time will tell which outlook is right, but if the IEA is correct, oil prices could stay soft for a while.
🇷🇺 Russia’s Oil Revenue Continues to Fall
Russia made $13.35 billion in oil revenue in September, but that’s a steep drop compared to previous months. Even though they shipped out more crude — the most since May 2023 — they exported far fewer refined products like diesel and fuel oil.
Western sanctions, attacks on refineries from Ukraine, and weak prices have all played a role. Russia is still producing more oil, but it’s selling at a discount and struggling to move refined fuels. That means less money coming in, even with more barrels going out.
🛢 Market Outlook: Prices Drop on Trade Tensions
Futures prices (contracts for buying oil later) are also starting to flatten out, a signal that supply is abundant right now and investors aren’t expecting prices to rise anytime soon.
📉 Energy Chart Watch: WTI CrudeToday’s chart shows West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for the November 2025 contract is down $1.30 to $58.27 — the lowest we’ve seen since early May.
📊 It’s also trading well below both the 30-day and 90-day averages, which suggests the market may be oversold.⚖ The longer the U.S.-China trade standoff continues, the more pressure we’ll likely see on oil prices.🛠 On the flip side, if we see signs of a trade deal or resolution, prices could climb again.
👨🌾 Bottom Line for Farmers:
- Expect some volatility in fuel prices as trade tensions continue.
- Global supply may outpace demand, which could help keep fuel prices manageable.
- Keep an eye on trade talks — especially between the U.S., China, and India — as they may influence both fuel availability and price trends heading into next season.
📞 Want to know what this could mean for your farm fuel budget? Give your account manager a call—we’re here to help you stay ahead.
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