🛢️ Today’s Market News – Fuel, Trade & Economic Update for the Upper Midwest
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump & China Restart Trade Talks
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke Thursday for the first time since Trump returned to office, and the focus was clear—restart high-level trade talks.
-
China is asking the U.S. to lift tariffs and ease restrictions on technology and visas.
-
Trump called the chat “very positive”, but big issues like Taiwan and rare earth minerals are still unresolved.
-
While a 90-day tariff truce is in place, there’s still a lot of uncertainty around what comes next.
For farmers and ag producers, this means continued ups and downs in export markets, especially for goods tied to global trade agreements.
💼 Job Growth Slowing, But No Panic Yet
Job growth in the U.S. likely slowed in May, with new payrolls expected to add about 130,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. But it’s not all bad:
-
Unemployment remains steady around 4.2%, and people are still spending thanks to rising wages.
-
Businesses are being cautious about hiring, but they’re also not laying folks off—they’re holding steady.
-
Industries like manufacturing and hospitality are feeling pressure from trade and tariff issues.
-
Crackdowns on immigration are having a small but growing effect on the size of the available workforce.
Bottom line: the job market’s cooling, but it’s not freezing—and that likely means the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates until late 2025.
🛢️ U.S. Light Crude Losing Ground Globally
U.S. oil—especially light, sweet crude like WTI and Light Louisiana Sweet—isn’t in as high demand as it was just a few months ago.
-
Other countries like Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Guyana are flooding the market with cheaper oil.
-
U.S. exports to Europe and Asia are slowing as those markets shift to other sources.
-
Refiners prefer medium-sour crude during summer fuel production—another reason U.S. oil is losing its edge.
Prices for U.S. crude have dropped noticeably since March, and some producers are considering slowing down production—even though there’s pressure to keep domestic supply up.
📉 Market Overview: Oil Prices Dip, But Still Up for the Week
Oil prices are slipping a bit Friday, but overall, WTI crude is still up 3% this week, marking its first weekly gain in three weeks.
What’s pushing prices up:
-
Positive tone from the Trump–China call has boosted hopes for economic growth and energy demand.
-
However, rising global supply—thanks to OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia’s price cuts—is keeping prices from climbing too fast.
Looking ahead, analysts expect things to stay fairly balanced this summer, but a surplus could emerge later this year if demand doesn’t keep up.
💶 European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates
The European Central Bank (ECB) just made its eighth interest rate cut, bringing rates to 2%. That’s low compared to countries like the U.S. and UK, where rates are still above 5%.
What does this mean?
-
A stronger euro could help European buyers afford more U.S. commodities, like grain and fuel.
-
Lower inflation pressure from imports could give global oil prices a slight lift.
-
The ECB signaled it’s likely done with major cuts, which may help stabilize global markets.
📞 Want help navigating how global changes may impact your fuel planning or crop season? Reach out to your account manager—we’re here to help.
