CEC Market Watch 7/8/2025

1. Easier Rules for Oil Drillers Could Lower Costs

The U.S. Interior Department is working on a rule change to make oil and gas drilling more flexible and affordable—especially in western states. The new plan would let energy companies use the same drilling site to pull oil from different leases, which could save the industry up to $1.8 billion a year.

Right now, they can only do this if the land has the same owners and royalty rules. The government says those restrictions are outdated and slow things down. The proposed change would make operations simpler and help ensure that landowners—including Native American tribes—get paid properly. Supporters say this will help increase oil production by cutting red tape.

2. New Tariffs Could Shake Up Trade and Markets

President Trump has announced new 25% tariffs on products from Japan, South Korea, and a few other countries, starting August 1. More could be coming if trade talks don’t go well. Trump also warned the EU of possible tariffs on food and farm products if they don’t reach a deal. These announcements have already caused stock markets to dip.

Why it matters? Tariffs can impact everything from fuel prices to farm exports. They usually create uncertainty in global markets, and that can lead to price swings—especially in oil and agricultural commodities.

3. Executive Order Targets Wind and Solar

Trump also signed an executive order that will phase out certain tax breaks for wind and solar energy projects. He called these technologies expensive and unreliable and said he wants to shift the focus back to traditional energy sources like oil and gas. The rule ends tax credits after 2026 for renewable projects that haven’t yet begun construction.

4. Market Overview: Oil Prices Slide Slightly

After a small jump earlier in the week, oil prices dropped a bit on Tuesday. The price of U.S. crude (WTI) settled around $67.68 per barrel. That dip came as markets reacted to two things:

  • OPEC+ announcing it will produce more oil in August

  • Concerns over how Trump’s tariffs might affect the global economy and energy demand

Even though U.S. summer fuel demand is strong, experts say the extra oil from OPEC+ could put pressure on prices this fall.


🔍 Extra Insight: Who Will Buy All This Extra Oil?

OPEC+ (the big group of oil-producing countries) is planning to boost oil output in August by 548,000 barrels a day. That almost erases the big production cuts they made last year. But here’s the catch: it’s not clear whether all that oil will actually be sold.

China, the world’s top oil importer, hasn’t been buying much more oil this year. If oil prices go up, countries like China and India tend to pull back on purchases. A big jump in prices in mid-June might already be enough to slow buying for August and September. So, even though production is rising, demand may not follow—and that could keep prices from climbing much further.

📞 Want to know what this could mean for your farm fuel budget? Give your account manager a call—we’re here to help you stay ahead.

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