🚜 Today’s Market News
🇺🇸 U.S. Oil Production Update
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says we’re set to hit a record high in oil production this December—13.6 million barrels a day. But they expect that to slow down a bit over the next couple of years. In 2025, production could average 13.41 million barrels a day, then dip slightly to 13.28 million in 2026.
Why the slowdown? Mainly because of lower oil prices and less investment in drilling. Oil prices are now expected to average about $63.58 a barrel in 2025, then fall to $47.77 in 2026. (Today’s price is around $62.90.)
🇷🇺 Russia’s Oil Exports Take a Hit
Russia’s oil shipments dropped by 6.6% in July. A big reason was scheduled maintenance at refineries and higher demand at home, which meant less fuel available to export.
Exports from Russia’s Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports all dropped significantly. Only the Far East region saw an increase, as some refineries came back online after repairs.
🛢️ U.S. Fuel Inventories
Here’s what the EIA reported this week:
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Crude oil stocks rose by 3 million barrels – more than expected.
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Gasoline supplies dropped by 800,000 barrels – which is pretty normal for August.
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Diesel (distillate) supplies increased by 700,000 barrels.
Overall, diesel inventories are still 15% lower than the 5-year average, while crude oil is 6% below normal. Both gasoline and diesel demand were down just a touch—by about half a percent each.
🌍 Big Picture: What’s Moving the Market?
Oil prices are slightly up today, especially gas, while diesel is pretty flat.
Here’s why:
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There’s a big meeting happening between the U.S. and Russia about the Ukraine war. President Trump has warned that sanctions could be coming, especially for countries like China or India that buy oil from Russia.
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If these sanctions happen, global oil supplies could get tighter, which might raise prices.
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Meanwhile, there’s a growing chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which could boost fuel demand.
So far, things are calm but cautious in the markets.
⚡ Energy Highlights
In 2024, the U.S. exported over half of its crude oil and natural gas liquids. That includes diesel, gasoline, and propane.
Thanks to new pipelines, better ports, and lifting the ban on exports back in 2016, we’ve been shipping out a lot of our fuel—especially to Europe, Mexico, China, and Canada.
With Europe cutting off Russian oil, the U.S. has become a major supplier.
📞 Want to know what this could mean for your farm fuel budget? Give your account manager a call—we’re here to help you stay ahead.
