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Oil Markets Hold Steady as U.S. Production Stays Strong and Trade Tensions Ease

August 12, 2025

Today’s Market News – August 12, 2025

Clear. Simple. What you need to know in energy today.

🇺🇸 U.S. Oil Production Holding Strong

Even with global prices under pressure, U.S. oil and fuel production is still running near record highs. In May, the U.S. hit a new peak—producing over 20.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of petroleum. That number stayed strong into early August at around 20.8 million bpd. For the first five months of the year, we’re averaging over 20.5 million bpd, which is a healthy jump from last year’s 19.8 million during the same period.

Why does it matter?
More U.S. production means more supply for domestic use and global export—helping support prices at the pump and keeping things more stable during market swings.

🇷🇺 Russia’s Oil Exports Slide Slightly

Russia’s oil shipments have dipped for the third week in a row—but they’re still within normal range for the year. One big factor? India, which usually buys a lot of Russian oil, is now starting to purchase more from other countries due to U.S. tariff pressure.

What to watch:
It may take a few weeks to see how much this affects global supply and prices, but changes in trade flows like this can ripple out quickly.

🇨🇳 U.S. and China Extend Trade Truce

Here’s some good news: The U.S. and China have agreed to pause new tariffs for 90 days. After multiple rounds of talks, both sides are working toward a more permanent agreement.

Why it matters for oil:
Tariffs can slow down global economic growth—when that happens, fuel demand usually dips. So, fewer tariffs = better odds of strong fuel demand and more price stability.

📊 Market Overview

Oil prices are off to a stable start this morning. The U.S.-China truce is calming fears of trade-related slowdowns. There’s also talk of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut soon, which could help the economy and, in turn, support fuel demand.

Coming up:
A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin could shake things up depending on how talks around Ukraine and oil sanctions go.

🔍 Energy Highlights: Diesel Market Snapshot

We’ve been tracking ULSD (Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel) prices over the past 6 months. Here’s what the chart is showing:

A big price spike happened in late June after the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Since then, diesel prices have struggled to climb past $2.20/gallon.
The closest they came was $2.2391 on August 6.
Today’s price is down a few cents, and traders are watching closely to see if prices push higher again.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 40.7, meaning the market is slightly tilted toward “oversold” territory but not extreme—there’s room for a bounce if demand ticks up.